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On Monday, high temperatures will likely be a little cooler, mainly in the lower 80s inland and mid 80s closer to the coast. Highs Sunday should rise into the mid to upper 80s across the area. Max temperatures will be kept in check somewhat(for late August standards) due to extensive cloud cover and convective activity each day, this will especially be the case on Monday. widespread organized severe storms are not expected, however. Again localized heavy rainfall and potential localized minor flooding will be possible at times on Monday, along with the continued potential of a strong thunderstorm or two, with wet microbursts being the main threat and could result in strong to locally damaging wind gusts. As such, we will expect even more cloud cover and slightly higher PoPs, in the 80-90 percent range, for most areas by the afternoon hours. On Monday, pattern will be very much the same, although some model data suggests even better shortwave energy aloft. Even with the increased shortwave activity aloft, still expect a primarily diurnal convective pattern through Monday, so looking at PoPs decreasing during Sunday evening, but with low end chance PoPs (generally 30-40 percent) remaining overnight. A strong storm or two will remain possible given pockets of MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding on Sunday given the high atmospheric moisture content and the potential for slow storm movement/cell mergers. Will have likely to categorical PoPs (70 to 80 percent) by Sunday afternoon. Additional shortwave impulses embedded within the westerly flow aloft in combination with rich moisture, afternoon heating/instability, and residual outflow boundaries across our area during the afternoon will allow for the development of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms once again through the day on Sunday. A plume of enhanced deep layer moisture should get pulled eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region on Sunday with precipitable water values looking to increase further to between 2.1 and 2.3 inches over most of our forecast area by Sunday afternoon. On Sunday, westerly flow aloft will increase across our region as an upper level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes and the Ohio/ Tennessee Valley region. Otherwise, partly cloudy for most locations for the remainder of the night with low temperatures mainly in the 70s, maybe right around 80 at the coast. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually winding down this evening after hanging in there later into the evening than the past several days. Winds will be generally light southerly (at times variable) across the area through the period. Shower and storm chances return across the area going into late Sunday morning and afternoon. There is a possibility of some patchy late night and early morning fog over interior areas, but this will quickly dissipate once the sun begins to rise. Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites through the critical TAF period. Winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.Īrea Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL (on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionĪrea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1052 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022ĪVIATION. Thursday night.Southeast winds around 5 knots. Wednesday night.South winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Wednesday.Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday night.Southeast winds around 5 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday.Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Monday night.Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Monday.North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Rest of tonight.Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 921 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 20 2022